How Publishers View New IP

Recently, 1Up’s Chris Pereira penned an article examining how Bethesda’s Dishonored bucked the notion that new IP will not sell well at the end of a console cycle. The article brings up an interesting argument and, perhaps, draws the right conclusion, but misses the underlying issues.

The gist of Pereira’s argument is expressed thusly:

[A successful launch for Dishonored] is encouraging news. As wonderful as seeing refinements of the franchises we already know and love can be, it’s the completely original titles that are often the most exciting to see.

But considering what we’ve been led to believe, this doesn’t make much sense. This month marked seven years since the Xbox 360 was released, and six years since the PlayStation 3 and Wii debuted. With it only being available on 360, PS3, and PC, the launch of the Wii U (coming just over a month after Dishonored’s launch) can’t be used as the reason for why Dishonored has done well. If anything, it signals either the end or fast-approaching end of this generation of consoles, so surely Dishonored had no business performing the way it did.

In logical terms, Pereira’s argument through the bulk of the article goes like this: if Dishonored sold well, then the assertion that new IP will not sell well late in a console’s life cycle has been rendered false. There is a kernel of truth in his assertion, but the fault in his logic is that publishers do not believe that new IP is absolutely guaranteed to fail during a console’s twilight years, only that there is a better return on investment for sequels.